British Columbians head to the polls in five days. David Eby called this snap election seeking a stronger mandate, but so far the campaign seems to have moved the other way. Today, the Northern Vibe model puts the BC Conservatives ahead: 55 seats to the NDP’s 36, with the Greens holding on to 2. In the BC legislature, a majority requires 47 seats.
As the campaign period progresses, a trajectory is starting to appear through the turbulence: provincial polling and modelling are moving further towards Lorne Doerkson’s BC Conservatives, winning a majority in 84% of simulations, compared to the NDP’s 11%.
Our polling aggregate has the Conservatives ahead at roughly 43%, with the NDP further behind at 39% and the Greens at 10%. What makes BC especially interesting is the multitude of competitive districts. Those districts are the ones we’ve been writing about each morning (@northernvibe.ca). Follow us on Threads for daily updates on the state of the race.
This week’s districts
Four of this week’s seven districts were decided by fewer than 500 votes in 2024. Today, the model favours a Conservative win in all four.
Surrey City Centre: 232 votes was the margin for the NDP’s Amna Shah in 2024, in the district with the lowest turnout in BC. Now Shah is in a rematch against Conservative Zeeshan Wahla. Our model rates the seat a SWING, with the Conservatives at a 71% chance of winning.
Penticton-Summerland: 317 votes was the margin for Conservative Amelia Boultbee, who crossed to the NDP in July and is not running again. The NDP’s Tina Lee is back on the ballot, this time against Tracy St Claire, who took nearly 10% as an independent in 2024 and now runs for the Conservatives. Our model rates it SAFE for the Conservatives.
Vancouver-Langara: 419 votes kept it NDP in 2024. Sunita Dhir defends it against Conservative Jaime Stein, and our model rates the seat a LEAN for the Conservatives, with a win probability just under 80%.
Richmond-Steveston: 484 votes, and now an open seat. The NDP’s Kelly Greene is not running again, leaving Bruce Kong to face Conservative Gordon Zhang. Our model rates it a SWING, with the Conservatives at 73%.
The other three districts went NDP by more than 1,000 votes in 2024. All three are now toss-ups.
Ladysmith-Oceanside: 2,047 votes for the NDP’s Stephanie Higginson, while an independent took 16%. Higginson now faces Conservative Kris McNichol, and the model has them a tenth of a point apart.
Burnaby South-Metrotown: 1,187 votes for the NDP’s Paul Choi. Choi faces Conservative David Xie, and the NDP’s projected lead is under a point.
Surrey-Newton: 1,266 votes for the NDP’s Jessie Sunner, who now faces Conservative Harj Dhaliwal. The model has Sunner ahead by just over a point.
As this campaign has progressed, through door knocking, outreach events and the leaders’ debate, the polls have begun to tell a story, the conclusion of which is still unwritten. In just under a week, British Columbians will either keep David Eby’s NDP in government, extending a run that began in 2017, or elect Lorne Doerkson’s Conservatives, giving BC its first Conservative government in more than 90 years.
The BC Conservative lead in our polling average has grown from about three points to almost five over the past few weeks, but in a province where so many seats were won by a few hundred votes, the five days to go is plenty of time for that to change.
This is why The Northern Vibe Project models every district with its own page and share card at northernvibe.ca/bc, updated as new polls come in.
A few hundred votes in the right places will decide who governs British Columbia.
Stay curious,
Matt and Caitlin, from The Northern Vibe Project
Contact us at contact@northernvibe.ca
The Northern Vibe Project is not affiliated with Elections BC and isn’t a source of official voting information. For where and how to vote, and what ID to bring, head to elections.bc.ca.
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