By-Election Brief
The last time Terrebonne voted, the result came down to a single ballot. The Liberals won. By one vote. Then the Supreme Court of Canada took the unprecedented step of overturning the result entirely, citing administrative failures in how the election was conducted. The seat has been sitting empty ever since.
Tonight, that story gets its resolution. Voters in three ridings across Canada, University—Rosedale, Scarborough Southwest, and Terrebonne, head to the polls in the first electoral test since the April 2025 general election, and an early referendum on Mark Carney’s leadership to date.
University—Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest are widely expected to be safe Liberal holds — the real story tonight is in Quebec.
If you want to know if the Liberals have actually made inroads in Quebec, this could be your answer. Historically, this riding is a mood ring for Montreal’s North Shore. It was a Bloc Québécois stronghold for years, took a detour during the NDP Orange Wave under Jack Layton in 2011, and has been firmly within the Bloc fold since 2019.
However, our simulation hints at a shift coming over the horizon. Despite Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné (BQ) being a high-profile incumbent and a formidable voice in the House of Commons, our model gives Tatiana Auguste (LPC) a 61% probability of victory compared to the Bloc’s 39%.
Still too close to call — expect a long night in Terrebonne as they count the new vote.
Check out the forecast at: northernvibe.ca/forecast
Seat Projection Snapshot
Our simulation puts the Liberals at 216 seats if the election were held today — a comfortable majority. The Conservatives sit at 96 seats, the Bloc at 22, the NDP at 8, and the Greens at 1. One year out from the 2025 general election, the seat map projections have barely moved, a sign of just how entrenched the Liberal lead is right now, and how far the opposition has to go.
For Poilievre, 96 seats likely reflects significant ground still to recover. For the NDP, now under Avi Lewis, single digits reflects a party still working to define its role in the post-Trudeau political landscape. Tonight's by-elections may begin to answer a question our simulation can't: whether any of that shifts when Canadians actually cast ballots for the first time in 2026.
Vibe Check
This time last year, Canadian media was overwhelmingly focused on one story: Donald Trump. Tariff threats, sovereignty rhetoric, the looming trade war. When something went wrong economically, the coverage pointed to our Southern neighbours. Our federal government was simply along for the ride.
That’s now changed. Coverage in the media has gradually rotated back toward Ottawa — not dramatically, but persistently. This week’s headlines are a decent snapshot of where things stand: an oil price shock and softwood lumber uncertainty on the side of external factors influencing daily Canadian life, and an ethics breach at the deputy minister level, and an immigration policy controversy demanding a government response. The stories focused on external international news are still there, but domestic accountability is increasingly sharing the front page of Canadian news.
Government approval polls tell a similar story. At 58%, Carney’s Liberals are still well-liked by historical standards, though down slightly from the post-election peak of 63%. In contrast, the darkest days of Trudeau’s final months saw government approval dip to just 25%. Not necessarily a warning sign, just gravity.
The picture heading into tonight’s by-elections: a government that is popular, currently dominant in the seat count, but watching the goodwill from last year’s election slowly normalize. The rally is fading. Now comes the difficult part, governing.
Tonight isn’t just about three seats; it’s about whether the “Carney Vibe” is an enduring shift in Canada’s political landscape or is a temporary reprieve. We’ll be watching the returns in real-time.
Don’t just take our word for it—run the numbers yourself. The simulation that produced these forecasts is live on our site. You can adjust the swing variables, explore riding demographics, and see exactly how narrow the path to the 172 seat majority really is.
Try the Election Simulator at NorthernVibe.ca
Stay curious,
The Northern Vibe Team
Written by Matt
Edited by Caitlin