There are 343 federal ridings in Canada. National coverage averages them into a seat count.
The 343 takes them one at a time: the riding, the MP, the model’s call, the demographic anchor that explains the politics. One profile a week, every Wednesday.
National numbers tell you who’s winning. The 343 tells you who’s representing.
The Northern Vibe Project started here — 343 ridings modelled out of the one we walk around in. So the series begins at home.
Downtown Halifax, taken from George’s Island. Photo: Matthew Hickey, 2025
The riding is the urban core — the peninsula and its harbour edges. It runs on universities, hospitals, government, and the naval dockyard, an economy where more than a third of workers are public sector (35th of 343). That mix makes Halifax one of the youngest seats in the country (36% under 35, 7th), one of the most rented (61%, 16th), and one of the most transient (57% have moved in the past five years, 6th). The city has lately been among Canada’s fastest-growing, and the rent has followed — the riding now sits 24th nationally for shelter stress. On paper, a contested political battleground.
Halifax: a peninsula riding that was NDP ground for 18 years, now a safe Liberal seat.
Politically, it was New Democrat ground for almost two decades. Alexa McDonough held Halifax from 1997, Megan Leslie from 2008, a party leader then a deputy leader, back to back. The Liberals took it only in the 2015 wave, under Andy Fillmore. When Fillmore left federal politics to become Halifax’s mayor in 2024, the seat opened.
In 2021, the NDP nearly gained it back. The Liberals held by just 1.95 points, the NDP a breath behind at 40%. It read as a genuine LPC–NDP race.
Then 2025 flattened it. With Shannon Miedema, a 15-year city-hall official who ran Halifax’s climate plan carrying the seat, the Liberals took 63%, the NDP fell to third at 17%, and a two-point race became a nearly 44-point one. The NDP floor simply gave way.
On these numbers the model now reads Halifax as SAFE — LPC near-certain to hold, a projected LPC 67% / NDP 17% / CPC 12%. The seat the NDP held for 18 years, and nearly took back four years ago, no longer behaves like a contest.
The map starts at home.
Stay curious,
Matt, from The Northern Vibe Project
Edited by Caitlin